And I'm in agreement with you, I don't think the Falcons are that good either. I mean if you look at their previous games you'll see that most of 'em were very close, however sloppy, games. But some how they pull it off.
The big teams (other than the Bengals) in the AFC are difficult to predict. I think the Ravens and Patriots don't seem like real contenders this time, but the Texans and Broncos look like they're built for the playoffs.
On the other hand, I don't think the Ravens are good enough to own the record they have but what are ya gonna do? As for the Pats, if the opposing team can score 30+ and play solid defense they could easily be taken out.
I believe the Broncos, as of now, are the team to beat. They're red hot. Peyton has turned them into a Super Bowl contending team...even more so than what he did in Indy.
My lame ass prediction is the 49ers vs the Texans in the Superbowl, with the 49ers taking the win.