After an estimated 80% drop on Friday, we now have full estimates for the entire holiday weekend (including Monday).

Ridley Scott‘s Prometheus, which has the “DNA of Alien,” did okay at the box office, although it’s quite possible it even lost some before its home video release. With a production budget of $130 million and an assumed marketing spend of at least $100 million, the $400 million worldwide GROSS put it a bit under the profit territory.

So, with the sequel, Scott trimmed the budget by $30 million and added “Alien” back to the title. Using brand recognition and cutting down on the budget would flip the Prometheus numbers around, right? Unfortunately, no. That 80% was cataclysmic for a film that was already scraping by after underperforming opening weekend, failing to hit the $40 million projections.

As I wrote this past weekend, Twentieth Century Fox’s Alien: Covenant was burned by Baywatch and sunk by Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales. In fact, the Friday estimates were so bad that Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 beat out Ridley Scott’s Prometheus sequel/Alien prequel.

The full holiday weekend wasn’t any better, with Alien: Covenant landing in the fourth spot and a total of $60 million. To put it in perspective, at the same point of its release Prometheus was at $89 million. Covenant‘s domestic run could end at $70 million. Based on a typical Hollywood release, Covenant will need to make $400 million worldwide to break even. As of this writing, it’s at $160 million. No matter what’s being reported, this is brutal.

Does it put the franchise in jeopardy? Maybe? Obviously not knowing the inner workings at Fox or the actual home video numbers for Prometheus, it’s hard to gauge, but there’s no way Covenant can be pegged as anything but a disappointment. Could Scott trim the budget again for the tentatively titled Alien: Awakening? Sure. Could the impact of releasing a franchise film make Fox a ton of money on their previous releases? Sure. There’s a lot of reasons for making another, it’s just feeling slightly out of reach at the moment.

To make matters worse, while this article reads as if I’m poo-pooing the release, I’m actually a huge fan of Prometheus and quite liked Alien: Covenant, so this is personally a huge blow. I’m praying that the release in China is an explosive as it’s been for other sci-fi genre films, especially Terminator Genysis. There’s still hope.