I don’t report on the box office very often anymore simply because it’s not only irrelevant to us, but it’s often misreported. And because a film’s success or failure is tough to gauge based on public information, its impact on future films is also hard to assess. Nit-picking a smaller movie’s small box office “take” is like kicking a dog that we aren’t really sure is down, which is why it’s way more fun to report on one’s monstrous success.
M. Night Shyamalan was once considered frontrunner to become the next Spielberg. The Sixth Sense set the bar so high that he’s never been able to reach it again, and honestly was never even close. Since the 1999 blockbuster, which is one of the biggest genre box office hits of all time, Shyamalan has floundered…and although you’ll find a lot of people who love Unbreakable, Signs or even The Village, I’d be hard pressed to find supporters of Lady in the Water, The Happening, The Last Airbender and even After Earth.
It took 15 years for Shyamalan to lower his own bar, and for audiences to stop expecting him to out-twist them. Instead, on the heels of the 2010 Devil (which he produced), the director appears to be more focused on just telling an engaging story. I am a huge, huge, huge fan of the first season of “Wayward Pines” and thought The Visit was a solid horror flick, held back by the found-footage approach that many of us are tired of. This weekend’s Split is really the first time he’s directed something mainstream for us genre fans since 2008’s The Happening, allowing almost a decade of healing between films. It’s been so long, really, that younger audiences don’t even know who Shyamalan is. There’s no expectations anymore, which is allowing him to focus on one thing and one thing only: making a good movie. Sure, he’s still trying to force a twist into his product, but I don’t think general audiences care anymore, which is allowing him to fly again.
[Fantastic Fest Review] James McAvoy is the Reason to See M. Night Shyamalan’s Split
Split is proof. Being back in Chicago allows me to really vibe a film’s awareness. I can tell if a movie is going to break through simply by how many people are talking about it. Everyone was talking Split, and surprisingly I never once heard anyone mention Shyamalan or “twists”. It just looked fun, engaging and interesting, which is something a lot of us needed this past weekend. People showed up, in troves, propelling Shyamalan back to stardom. I can only hope that this time he puts his mistakes of past behind him and gets behind a project that meets his expectations, not ours….
With that said, it’s being reported that Split is estimated to take in $40 million this weekend on a $10 million budget. Since nobody else breaks it down, here’s the best guess: $10 million budget, minimum of $10 million marketing, with a 50/50 split (no pun intended) with the box office puts Split at break even after just one weekend. The full domestic life of Split, assuming there’s no surprise boost (word of mouth should be strong) or drop, could land it over $100 million, putting it well into the profit range. This doesn’t even include international numbers, which I couldn’t even pretend to guesstimate.
This is a huge win for horror because this success isn’t based on twists, Shyamalan’s name or expectations, but knowing that people will show up to see a movie that’s being supported by the press, and that just “looks good”. While it did cost $10m and star James McAvoy, Split does give hope to independent filmmakers that their little film could be the next to break out, would a studio give it a chance. What a wonderful way to kick off 2017…
